Accuracy & Validation Methodology

Platform v4.1 · 2026-05-06 · Ref: SATCLIMATE-ACCURACY-2026-001

Accuracy & Validation Methodology

SatClimate Signal Validation Framework

Platform v4.1 · v1.5 · 2026-05-06

4

Validation Methods

5

Data Quality Gates

1. Validation Framework

SatClimate signals are validated against: (1) Historical backtesting using realized market outcomes, (2) Cross-satellite consensus (multiple data sources), (3) Domain expert review, (4) Real-time performance scanning.

2. Directional Accuracy Testing

Signals tested against EU ETS price movements over 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day windows

Baseline accuracy: Framework exists; formal publication pending

3. Confidence Score Calibration

Confidence scores are derived from:

  • Base Score: Segment-specific baseline
  • Deviation Penalty: |probability_score - 50|
  • Neutral Penalty: Applied when signal uncertain
  • Formula: base + 0.5×|prob-50| + neutral_penalty, clamped [42, 94]

4. Data Quality Gates

Satellite Feed Validation

VIIRS, ERA5, OpenAQ, USGS source integrity checks

Completeness Checks

Data gaps flagged; fallback mode if > 20% missing

Timeliness Validation

Observations within 24 hours of signal generation

Consistency Checks

Cross-source comparison to detect anomalies

5. Fallback Governance

If validation fails, signal_mode switches to "fallback" and confidence_score is set to 0. Fallback signals are served but marked as unreliable. Redis circuit breaker ensures fail-closed: service unavailable rather than serving stale data.

SATCLIMATE-ACCURACY-2026-001 · Methodology v1.5 · Platform v4.1 · amin@carbonaa.net

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